ABSTRACT
The heterogeneity of patients with COVID-19 may explain the wide variation of mortality rate due to the population characteristics, presence of comorbidities and clinical manifestations. In this study, we analysed 5,342 patients' recordings and selected a cohort of 177 hospitalised patients with a poor prognosis at an early stage. We assessed during six months their symptomatology, coexisting health conditions, clinical measures and health assistance related to mortality. Multiple Cox proportional hazards models were built to identify the associated factors with mortality risk. We observed that cough and kidney failure triplicate the mortality risk and both bilirubin levels and oncologic condition are shown as the most associated with the demise, increasing in four and ten times the risk, respectively. Other clinical characteristics such as fever, Diabetes Mellitus, breathing frequency, neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio, oxygen saturation and troponin levels, were also related to mortality risk of in-hospital death. The present study shows that some symptomatology, comorbidities and clinical measures could be the target of prevention tools to improve survival rates.
ABSTRACT
Importance: Limited information on the transmission and dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 at the city scale is available. Objective: To describe the local spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Valencia, Spain. Design, Setting, and Participants: This single-center epidemiological cohort study of patients with SARS-CoV-2 was performed at University General Hospital in Valencia (population in the hospital catchment area, 364â¯000), a tertiary hospital. The study included all consecutive patients with COVID-19 isolated at home from the start of the COVID-19 pandemic on February 19 until August 31, 2020. Exposures: Cases of SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by the presence of IgM antibodies or a positive polymerase chain reaction test result on a nasopharyngeal swab were included. Cases in which patients with negative laboratory results met diagnostic and clinical criteria were also included. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was the characterization of dissemination patterns and connections among the 20 neighborhoods of Valencia during the outbreak. To recreate the transmission network, the inbound and outbound connections were studied for each region, and the relative risk of infection was estimated. Results: In total, 2646 patients were included in the analysis. The mean (SD) age was 45.3 (22.5) years; 1203 (46%) were male and 1442 (54%) were female (data were missing for 1); and the overall mortality was 3.7%. The incidence of SARS-CoV-2 cases was higher in neighborhoods with higher household income (ß2 [for mean income per household] = 0.197; 95% CI, 0.057-0.351) and greater population density (ß1 [inhabitants per km2] = 0.228; 95% CI, 0.085-0.387). Correlations with meteorological variables were not statistically significant. Neighborhood 3, where the hospital and testing facility were located, had the most outbound connections (14). A large residential complex close to the city (neighborhood 20) had the fewest connections (0 outbound and 2 inbound). Five geographically unconnected neighborhoods were of strategic importance in disrupting the transmission network. Conclusions and Relevance: This study of local dissemination of SARS-COV-2 revealed nonevident transmission patterns between geographically unconnected areas. The results suggest that tailor-made containment measures could reduce transmission and that hospitals, including testing facilities, play a crucial role in disease transmission. Consequently, the local dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 spread might inform the strategic lockdown of specific neighborhoods to stop the contagion and avoid a citywide lockdown.